Research

Working papers and selected works in progress

Adoption, incidence and welfare impacts of interest-free loans: Evidence from solar PV, with Misato Sato and Aurélien Saussay. Submitted.
[GRI Working Paper] [CEP Discussion Paper] [Media coverage: The Herald]

• Abstract: Steep declines in solar PV costs alongside concerns about regressive subsidy incidence raise questions about whether, and how, to continue support. Leveraging administrative microdata on the near-universe of UK domestic PV, we employ a matched difference-in-differences design exploiting devolved UK policy to evaluate the zerointerest Home Energy Scotland loan. The loan increased household adoption and shifted take-up towards smaller systems. Distributionally, gains were broad and not concentrated among high-wealth or rural areas, delivering more equitable benefits than alternative PV subsidies. A loan-specific marginal value of public funds shows welfare gains at modest fiscal cost even in a low-solar potential setting.

The impact of weather shocks on exports

[Available here] [Ergs and Equilbrium Podcast Episode]

• Abstract: Extreme weather and climate change affect not just productivity but also the international trade networks that link buyers and sellers. Exploiting a detailed 29-year panel of industry-level bilateral trade, this paper brings together recent approaches in international trade and climate econometrics to investigate the differential impact of weather shocks on exports relative to domestic sales, shedding light on the interaction of weather shocks with existing trade barriers. The results suggest that both manufacturing and agricultural exports are sensitive to weather shocks, but the agricultural sector is more sensitive to a more broad set of weather shocks. Heterogeneity analysis suggests that these effects are larger when existing trade barriers are already large, such as if trading partners do not share a border. Weather shocks and potentially climate change can propagate unequally through the international trade network and exacerbate existing barriers to international trade.

Wage and skills gaps for green jobs in Europe, with Federico Frattini, Misato Sato, Aurélien Saussay, and Francesco Vona

Does trade openness reduce the impact of temperature shocks on productivity? An empirical assessment

Green innovation in food products, with Marion Dumas

Policy papers

Skills and wage gaps in the low-carbon transition: comparing job vacancy data from the US and UK (2023). Grantham Research Institute Policy Report, with Misato Sato, Aurélien Saussay, Francesco Vona, Leo Mercer, and Layla O’Kane.
[Media coverage: The Guardian; The Financial Times.]